Liverpool FC - Form, expectations, decline and recovery

Liverpool have been difficult to judge so far this season. They have a new young manager in Brendan Rodgers who is trying to transform their style of play. But the transfer window left them woefully short of attacking options, and this has been exacerbated by the injury to Borini, one of the few attacking players they did manage to bring in. They've also lost one of their best midfielders, Lucas, for a long period with a thigh injury, and have been reliant on the excellent form of youngsters such as Raheem Sterling and Andre Wisdom to fill gaps in a thin looking squad.

All of this has made it difficult to tell whether they are a team on the up, or one destined for mid-table obscurity (or worse), and opinions tend to reflect people's opinion on Rodgers and whether they believe in what he's trying to implement - so some fans will point to 8 games unbeaten before Spurs in midweek as being a good solid run to build on, while others point out that the same run included only 1 win in 5.

Regardless, their next run of six games consists of Southampton (H), West Ham (A), Aston Villa (H), Fulham (H), Stoke (A), QPR (A). Six games that they will consider to be 'winnable', and which will go a long way to defining their season. A good run would put them back in contention for the European places with the teams around them faltering. So, let's look at how good the recent form looks in comparison with their form over the last few years, and what they might realistically expect from the next six games.

The chart below shows the number of points gained from the last 6 league games, going back to 08/09 when Benitez was in charge, and shows form up to and including Swansea away last Sunday.

All managers and teams have good runs and bad runs at some point, and this is reflected in the chart. Even Roy Hodgson managed to achieve 13 points from 6 games at some point in his otherwise disastrous tenure. Rodgers appears to have presided over the worst run of 6 games, however this is slightly misleading as it includes the end of season defeat to Swansea under Dalglish. The recent run of 9 points from 6 games seems to be roughly par for the course over the last two years.

It is interesting to note that since Benitez no-one has managed to achieve 15+ points from 6 games, and Dalglish only achieved 14 points once. It is also worth noting that the last time Liverpool managed to gain 11+ points from 6 games was at the end of 2011. As such, whilst the run of games coming up looks relatively easy in Premiership standards, and fans might be expecting 12 points or more, 10 points would seem to be a good return based on 2012 form.

The last 6 form guide is not an ideal measure however. At the start of this season Liverpool played Arsenal, Manchester City and Manchester United in their first 6 games, and the points return in part reflected the toughness of this run of games. It can be more useful to look at form over an extended time period, so the chart below shows results over the previous 19 games, again going back to 08/09 under Benitez.

Here Liverpool's decline in recent seasons can be clearly seen. Their form peaked under Benitez with 46 points from 19 games  during 2009, clear title winning form. As has been well documented, the club began to unravel financially during 09/10, with the owners Hicks and Gillett struggling to finance the huge debts that they'd placed on the club. Xabi Alonso was sold to Real Madrid, replaced by Alberto Aquilani seemingly because Liverpool were able to pay the transfer fee entirely in instalments.  Glen Johnson was also signed from Portsmouth because they still owed Liverpool £7 million for Peter Crouch and so the up front cost was reduced. These deals were a sign of things to come and the club was reportedly 'a day away from administration' before the takeover by Fenway Sports Group in late 2010.

The impact on the team's form is clear to see. From title winning form in 2009, they slipped to finish 7th in 2009/10. Benitez was sacked, and his replacement Roy Hodgson presided over a spell where Liverpool spent some time in the relegation zone, and he eventually left in January 2011 having gained just 24 points from the previous 19 games.

There was a brief revival under Dalglish, with top-four form of over 35 points from 19 games towards the end of the 2010/11 season. But, the decline during 2011/12 is shown starkly in the chart. When Dalglish left the club, Liverpool had secured just 18 points from the previous 19 games. Of course, during that period Liverpool also reached two cup finals, winning one of them, but the league form was atrocious, and was that of a side which would get relegated if replicated over a full season.

So, Rodgers inherited a side that was in relegation form, and in that context the recent form appears to be a bit of a mini revival. Liverpool fans won't get carried away, as it's still not great and is a long way from where they want to be. If the next 6 games provide 10 points or more though, as the fans will hope and even expect, then Rodgers will have gone some way to restoring Liverpool's league form to a level which will allow them to compete for the European places once again.